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National Research Council, Division of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications,Biblio.com

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models; Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification Validation and Uncertainty Quantification

2012ref. 79972Washington DC: The National Academies Press 2012. Presumed First Edition First printing. Trade paperback. Very good. xi 1 131 1 pages. Footnotes. Formulae. Figures some with color. Boxes some with color. References. In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results the National Research Council NRC was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. The specific tasking to the Committee on Mathematical Foundations of Verification Validation and Uncertainty Quantification is as follows: • A committee of the National Research Council will examine practices for VVUQ of large-scale computational simulations in several research communities. • The committee will identify common concepts terms approaches tools and best practices of VVUQ. • The committee will identify mathematical sciences research needed to establish a foundation for building a science of verification and validation V&V and for improving the practice of VVUQ. • The committee will recommend educational changes needed in the mathematical sciences community and mathematical sciences education needed by other scientific communities to most effectively use VVUQ. Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification. As computational science and engineering have matured the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification validation and uncertainty of quantification VVUQ. In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results the National Research Council was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field students stakeholders UQ experts and VVUQ educators and practitioners. The National Academies Press paperback

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National Research Council of the National Academies, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Committee on Defense IntelliBiblio.com

Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances

2005ref. 73692Washington DC: The National Academies Press 2005. Presumed First Edition First printing. Wraps. Very good. xvi 122 pages. Illustrations Figures Tables Boxes and Charts. Acronyms. Footnotes. References. Cover has slight wear and soiling. The global spread of expertise in science and technology and commercial access to advanced technologies with possible military applications could undermine the technological superiority on which U.S. military strength is based. To address this possibility the U.S. intelligence community must provide adequate effective warnings of the evolution of critical technologies. The Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency asked the National Academies to undertake a study of technology warning issues. This report the first part of that study provides an assessment of critical evolving technologies; postulates ways potential adversaries could disrupt their development; and identifies warning signs that disruptive methods are under development. The intention of this report is to establish the foundation for a long-term relationship between the National Academies and the technology warning community to support ongoing studies of technology warning issues. U.S. military strength is built on a foundation of technological superiority that grew from a position of global leadership in relevant technologies and innovative capabilities. That leadership position is no longer assured. The synergistic forces of globalization and commercialization of science and technology are providing current and future adversaries with access to advanced technologies as well as the expertise needed to exploit those technologies. The Defense Intelligence Agency DIA requested that the National Research Council NRC establish the Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews to conduct meetings with the intelligence community IC in order to develop study topics relating to technology warning. The committee was asked to produce a report based on its discussions with the intelligence community that discusses capabilities upon which U.S. warfighters are dependent and to identify the potential for adversaries to threaten those capabilities through the exploitation of evolving technologies. It is the intent of both the DIA Technology Warning Division as sponsor and the National Research Council that this report which is limited in scope will establish the foundation for a long-term collaborative relationship to support the examination of technology warning issues. It is expected that such examination will be useful not only for the DIA but also for other members of the intelligence community who might need such analyses. It is intended that the current ad hoc committee be disbanded subsequent to the publication of this report and that a standing committee be formed to work with the IC to keep abreast of issues relating to technology warning and to develop specific statements of task for independent ad hoc committees of the NRC to perform. The National Academies Press paperback

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National Research Council, Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources, Committee on the Atmospheric Effects ofBiblio.com

The Effects on the Atmosphere of a Major Nuclear Exchange

1985ref. 81567Washington DC: National Academies Press 1985. Presumed first edition/first printing. Trade paperback. Good. ix 1 . 193 1 p. References. Diagrams. Maps. Illustrations. Index. Cover has some wear and soiling. Signed by Colin S. Gray on front cover! Colin S. Gray December 29 1943 - February 27 2020 was a British-American writer on geopolitics and professor of International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading where he was the director of the Centre for Strategic Studies. In addition he was a Senior Associate to the National Institute for Public Policy. Gray was educated at the University of Manchester and the University of Oxford. He worked at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Hudson Institute before founding the National Institute for Public Policy in Washington D.C. He also served as a defence adviser both to the British and U.S. governments. Gray served from 1982 until 1987 in the Reagan Administration's General Advisory Committee on Arms Control and Disarmament. He taught at the University of Hull the University of Lancaster York University the University of Toronto and the University of British Columbia. Gray published 30 books on military history and strategic studies as well as numerous articles. Most of the earth's population would survive the immediate horrors of a nuclear holocaust but what long-term climatological changes would affect their ability to secure food and shelter This sobering book considers the effects of fine dust from ground-level detonations of smoke from widespread fires and of chemicals released into the atmosphere. The authors use mathematical models of atmospheric processes and data from natural situations-e.g. volcanic eruptions and arctic haze-to draw their conclusions. This is the most detailed and comprehensive probe of the scientific evidence published to date. National Academies Press paperback

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